事件记录
面试官: 据估计，一半的科学研究是不可重复的. 它们不能被复制，这是一个问题. Today, we're talking about a case study in irreproducibility, up next on 范围.
播音员: Examining the latest research and telling you about the latest breakthroughs. 《大发体育官网》将在范围频道播出.
面试官: 我正在和 Dr. 海蒂汉森 from the Huntsman Cancer Institute in the Department of Family and Preventive Medicine at the University of Utah. It's been estimated that up to half of scientific studies are irreproducible. 它们不能被复制，这是一个大问题. Dr. Hanson, you've actually published a study that feeds right into this conversation. The study calls into question a correlation that has gotten a lot of attention in the past few years.
阿尔茨海默病和癌症
Dr. 汉森: 之前有报道说癌症和 阿尔茨海默病 有反向关联. 所以基本上, 到目前为止，人们说的是，如果你得了癌症, 你就不会在以后的生活中患上老年痴呆症. 如果你患有阿尔茨海默病，它可以保护你远离癌症.
面试官: 这引起了相当多的关注. 《大发娱乐》上有一则报道, 有评论和评论的性质, 神经科学和其他一些出版物. How did the authors of those studies come to that conclusion in the first place?
Dr. 汉森: There have been a couple of studies where they've looked at individuals that have had cancer, 然后跟踪他们一段时间, 观察他们患老年痴呆症的风险. 然后, they also look at patients with 阿尔茨海默病 and look at their cancer risk later on in life. 它是通过几个更大的研究发表的. They did the normal statistical methods that you might be doing just to come to that conclusion.
面试官: 所以基本上, 对于那些患有癌症的人, 很少有人会患上阿尔茨海默病?
Dr. 汉森: 对，没错.
面试官: 这个结果会给你敲响警钟吗?
Dr. 汉森: I'm trained to think a lot about selection, and in particular, mortality selection. So what that means is I think about how processes that lead to different rates of death can affect the results that we see. And part of my demographic training is to think through some of those things. So I'm constantly looking at a result and asking if I really think that that's what's going on or if there is something underlying the result that we're seeing. 是的, 这可能是数据告诉你的, 而是数据告诉你发生了什么? 大发娱乐错过了什么更重要的东西吗?
面试官: 记住这一点，你在研究中发现了什么?
Dr. 汉森: 大发娱乐的研究重复了先前报道的一些结果. 然后, 大发娱乐显示, 一旦你开始思考这些事情, and think about how mortality is affecting the rates of Alzheimer's diagnosis in these patients, 你会看到一个不同的故事. 并不是说不存在反向关联, 但死亡率推动了这种反向关联. It's not because there is some underlying cellular genetic mechanism underpinning both diseases. 因为如果你得了癌症，你的死亡率就会更高. You're not going to go on to live long enough to be diagnosed with 阿尔茨海默病.
年龄相关疾病
面试官: 这当然说得通. 这一点非常重要, 你说, when you're thinking about aging-related disease and the aging population. 你能多说一点吗?
Dr. 汉森: 是的,绝对. 所以当大发娱乐变老的时候，会发生很多事情. 你通常不会患上一种慢性病. 同时有很多事情在发生. And if you think of aging in a single context or aging with a single disease and you're ignoring all of those other things that are going on, 你错过了更大的故事.
面试官: Do you think someone could come along a few years from now and find that maybe you didn't consider something in your analysis?
科学研究
Dr. 汉森: 当然，这就是我如此喜欢科学的原因. 大发娱乐并不是每次都能得到最好的答案. 这是一个迭代的过程. 大发娱乐都应该考虑彼此的工作, and we should all be critical of each other's work and figuring out how we can really understand what's going on. 要做到这一点, 有必要保持批判的态度，并努力做出决定, 好吧，也许大发娱乐可以换个角度看, 大发娱乐还会看到别的东西. So maybe there is this underlying mechanism and if we're able to look at it this way, 大发娱乐可以更深入地了解发生了什么. 这就是应该发生的事情.
面试官: 是的，这是一个很好的观点. I think one of the issues that you had brought up is that you're really trained to really look at the data and consider all the factors that might go into some of these correlations or some of these results. What do you think can happen to make sure that some of these people who are trained in the life sciences might consider some of these other types of analysis or other types of questions?
Dr. 汉森: Yeah, one of the biggest things that I think can really help that is working interdisciplinary. 如果大发娱乐在自己的学科领域进行研究, 自然地，大发娱乐被训练成以不同的方式思考, naturally we're going to approach problems from a different direction, 自然地，大发娱乐想要开始质疑不同的事情. Things where I've been trained to somewhat ignore them through my training, 其他人看到同样的问题可能会说, 等一下. 你没在想这个. 你需要对此持批判态度."
And that's what's so fascinating and fun to work with individuals from different disciplines. 在我看来，这才是真正好的科学. And really good science can't be done without that difference of thought. 我认为这是绝对必要的. 我看到了更多这样的情况，这很令人兴奋.
面试官: So do you think this is a common problem that people aren't considering their questions carefully enough?
发表偏倚
Dr. 汉森: 我做. 我认为这是一个非常普遍的问题. I think that people find the results that they're looking for a lot of times, 我认为这很不幸. And I think that publication bias leads into the kinds of problems that we are seeing where people are only reporting certain things or things are only getting published if they are of interest to the public. 我认为这会造成问题. I also think the really big push to publish fast causes huge problems. 这很不幸.
人们只是对他们的统计数据不那么彻底, 用他们的方法, with their thinking through the problem as they should be because there's such a push to get the publication out. 这是一个巨大的推动力. Everybody wants to move things quickly, do one analysis and send it off. 这就是你要做的. 我认为这很不幸.
播音员: 有趣，内容丰富，而且都是为了更好的健康. 大发娱乐是Scope健康科学广播.